Suppose you have 10 marbles in a box, six of them are red and four blue. (a) If you pick one marble at random from the box, what is the probability that the marble picked would be red? (b) If you pick one marble at a time and then put that marble back in the box and pick one marble again after randomizing the box again. What will be the probability that in three consecutive times you would not have picked any red marbles? (b) Suppose you do not put the marble picked. What will be the probability that you wouldn’t get any red marble? That is what is probability of getting blue, blue, blue in three consecutive tries?
Hint.
Use counting.
Answer.
(a) 60%, (b) 6.4%, (c) 3.3%.
Solution.
(a) Since there are six red marbles in ten, the probability of picking a red marble will be \(\dfrac{6}{10}\text{,}\) or 60%.
(b) Each time the probability of not getting a red marble is same \(\dfrac{4}{10}\text{.}\) Therefore, the probability that three consecutive picks will not get a red marble will be \(\dfrac{4}{10} \times \dfrac{4}{10} \times \dfrac{4}{10} = 0.064\text{,}\) or 6.4%.
(c) Now, the probability of not getting a red marble is not same in the three tries since the number of marbles and the number of blue marbles are going down with each pick. They are \(\dfrac{4}{10}\) for the first try, then you have \(3/9\) for the second try, and then \(2/8\) for the third try. Therefore, the probability that three consecutive picks will not get a red marble will be \(\dfrac{4}{10} \times \dfrac{3}{9} \times \dfrac{2}{8} = 0.033\text{,}\) or 3.3%.